THE SIMPLE ACT OF VOTING IN 1980 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

Abstract

Studies of presidential primary elections have not focused on how voters decide for whom to vote. This article tests a modified Kelley-Mirer rule with data from CBS News/ New York Times exit polls for the 1980 Democratic primary elections in California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The article focuses on (1) considerations, what voters take into account; and (2) a decision rule, how voters make decisions. Of the factors that voters take into account in general elections—candidate images, issues, ideology, and party identification—a person's image of the candidates and ideological identification seem to be the most relevant considerations in primary elections. Voters in primaries canvass their likes and dislikes of the leading candidates. Weighing each like and dislike equally, they vote for the candidate toward whom they have the greatest net number of favorable attitudes. If no candidate has such an advantage, the voter votes consistently with his or her ideological identification. This voter's decision rule correctly predicts 85.4% of the 8607 votes recorded in the ten exit polls, a level of accuracy that compares favorably with studies of general elections.