Abstract
This paper assesses the short-term impact of the US September 11 terrorist attacks and its after-effects on European Airline Demand. Using monthly data for ten time series from the Association of European Airlines (AEA), different univariate methods are estimated in order to evaluate the airlines traffic in terms of revenue passenger kilometres by comparing the fitted values resulting from the univariate methods employed for one year against the actuals. The results suggest that th September 11 impacted all of the European airline routes under study to a varying degree. The effects of the terrorism attack did not fully dissipate in most of the time series understudy by the end of October 2002.
Highlights
The global travel industry has endured many shocks throughout the past decade, such as economic oscillations, diseases and terrorist attacks making it a rather fragile industry
Using monthly data for ten time series from the Association of European Airlines (AEA), different univariate methods are estimated in order to evaluate the airlines traffic in terms of revenue passenger kilometres by comparing the fitted values resulting from the univariate methods employed for one year against the actuals
Data for the air traffic were taken from the Association of European Airlines (AEA), a non profit-making association that is made up of 33 European carriers, carrying 346 million passengers each year, operating 2,540 aircrafts, serving 605 destinations in 161 countries with 11,030 flights a day
Summary
The global travel industry has endured many shocks throughout the past decade, such as economic oscillations, diseases and terrorist attacks making it a rather fragile industry. Both the demand and supply sides of the industry are extremely vulnerable to these occurrences. September 11th (9/11) has been called the worst terrorism attack that the tourism industry has suffered to date even though it only took place on United States of America soil. As the world watched on that fateful day the events unfold, no one could have foreseen at that exact moment the full extent of this planned attack on the global tourism industry
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