The short-term effect of the government of Ghana’s decision to open borders at the early-onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) are used in public health to mitigate the risk and impact of epidemics or pandemics in the absence of medical or pharmaceutical solutions. Prior to the release of vaccines, COVID-19 control solely depended on NPIs. The Government of Ghana after assessing early NPIs introduced at the early stage of the pandemic began to ease some restrictions by the opening of international borders with isolation and quarantine measures enforced. It was argued by some experts that this was a hasty decision. In this study, we assessed the impact of the opening of borders to ascertain if this action caused a surge or otherwise in cases in the country. Using data from the database on Africa’s records of COVID-19 from the John Hopkins University, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) time-series regression model for count data was applied to study effects in Ghana during a 4-month and 8-month period post-opening of borders. The study showed that after the decision of the government to open international borders, Ghana's expected case count declined by 72.01% in the 4-month period and 54.44% in the 8-month period. This gives an indication of the gradual reversal of the gains made due to the early implementation of NPIs. Notably, this may not only be attributed to the opening of borders but the relaxation of the strict enforcement measures that were put in place at the onset of the pandemic in Ghana. There is therefore the need for continuous enforcement of intervention measures to reduce case counts, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 virus strains. The study provides some recommendations for policy and improvements in model building such as developing better data collection system in Ghana, investigating more control variables, estimating the decaying effect of interventions, and ensuring better preparations prior to easing of public health restrictions.