Simulation of transportation of acute stroke patients in border regions

Abstract

Determining the optimal transportation for each stroke patient is critically important to achieve the best possible outcomes. In border regions the next comprehensive stroke center may be just across an international border, but bureaucratic and financial hurdles may prevent a simple transfer to the next stroke center. We hypothesized that in regions close to international borders, patients may benefit from an "open border, closed transfer scenario", meaning that patients in whom a large vessel occlusion (LVO) is detected in the primary stroke center will benefit from a transfer to the nearest stroke center offering endovascular thrombectomy—even if this may be across a national border. We used the Swiss-German–French trinational region as an example for a region with several international borders within close proximity to one another, and compared two feasible scenarios; (a) a “closed borders, open transfer” scenario, where the patient is transported to any center in the same country, (b) an “open border, closed transfer” scenario, where patients are always transported to the nearby primary stroke center first and then to the nearest comprehensive stroke center in either the same or a neighboring country and (c) and “open borders, open transfer” scenario. The outcome of interest was the predicted probability of acute ischemic stroke patients to achieve a good outcome using a conditional probability model which predicts the likelihood of excellent outcome (modified Rankin scale score of 0–1 at 90 days post-stroke) for patients with suspected LVO. Results were modeled in a virtual map from which the ideal transport concept emerged. For an exemplary LVO stroke patient in Germany, the probability of a good outcome was higher in an open border, closed transfer scenario than with closed borders, open transfer (33.1 vs. 30.1%). Moreover, time to EVT would decrease from 232 min in the first scenario to 169 min in an open border, closed transfer scenario. The catchment area of the University Hospital Basel was almost double the size in an open border, closed transfer scenario compared to closed borders (1674 km2 vs. 2897 km2) and would receive transfers from 3 primary stroke centers in other countries (2 in Germany and 1 in France). Stroke patients showed a higher likelihood of good outcome in the “open border” scenarios without transfer restrictions to a specific healthcare system. This probably has implications for stroke treatment in all border regions where EVT eligible stroke patients may benefit from transport to the closest EVT capable center whenever possible, regardless of whether this hospital is located in the same or a neighboring country/jurisdiction.