Abstract
The shipping crisis starting in 2008 was characterized by sharply decreasing freight rates and sharply increasing financing costs. This led to numerous insolvencies of shipping companies and impairment losses of their lending institutions. We analyze the dependence structure of these two risk factors employing a conditional copula model with a focus on time-varying tail dependence, which we interpret as shipping crisis risk. As conditioning factors we use the supply and demand of seaborne transportation. We find that crisis risk strongly increased already about one year before the actual outburst of the crisis. Our results also show that the shipping crisis was predominantly driven by an oversupply of transport capacity rather than a declining demand. Taken these results together, market participants could have avoided or alleviated the crisis' consequences by reducing the ordering and financing of new vessels.
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