The Second Wave of Pension Reforms (2009–2019): Transformation of Pension Systems Projection

Abstract

This article is an extension of the article published in «Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law» № 6, 2019 [Zhukova 2019], in which explanation of pension waves formation mechanism, its integration in business-cycles, periodization and detailed analyses of the first wave of pension reforms are provided. In this article based on new macroeconomic and forecasted demographic factors, detected episodes of pension reforms the time frame and the characteristics of the second wave (2009 – 2019) is made, the third wave (since 2020) is predicted. The second wave in size is several years shorter than the first wave. It is characterized by more intensive and numerous pension reforms in the background of a similar number of macroeconomic shocks. The reasons for this are macroeconomic problems, the mass element of macroeconomic shocks connected with economic slowdown, budget deficits growth. The shrinking of the second-pillar pension system and its transformation into private hands become massive in scope. The reduction in the government’s pension obligations is accelerated. The third wave (since 2020) is expected to be the longest and the most intensive. The key characteristic is high probability of acroeconomic shocks connected with all macroeconomic factors sensitive for pension system to all groups of countries, passing the point of tightening of demographic pressures. The thrust of reform is changed to contradictory courses of action. On the one hand state presence, pension system coverage will continue to grow. On the other hand state guarantee (minimum pensions, age and another restrictions on retirement) will continue to decline. The growth of solidarity of public pension systems, of «payments burden» on working people to assure a minimum pensions for older persons, less dependence of the amount of the pension on the total insurance payments made are expected. Funded pensions will become the responsibility of individually insured persons without the financial participation of the State.