The Russo-Ukrainian War and Implications for Nuclear Nonproliferation in the Middle East

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The Russo-Ukrainian War has provided observers in the Middle East with lessons learned about nuclear issues and, in particular, about the implications of Ukraine's earlier denuclearization. This study addresses whether the conclusions drawn in the region contribute positively or negatively to non-proliferation. Although regional policymakers have said little on this sensitive issue, the media on which this study relies is controlled by the state in most Middle Eastern countries and reflects official policy and thus, indirectly, can provide insights into the thinking of policymakers in existing or potential nuclear states. The study concludes there is a regional consensus that Ukraine's denuclearization was a mistake and that Russia's nuclear status gives it an advantage, thus reinforcing existing paradigms on the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and increasing scepticism about the reliability of international security guarantees as a substitute for one's own nuclear arsenal. The likely result will be a more challenging situation for nonproliferation efforts in the Middle East. To enhance the prospect for non-proliferation, the international community should promote a less threatening security environment, with less rhetoric about external regime change or invasion, and offer credible security guarantees for those who disarm or agree not to seek nuclear weapons.