The nuclear equation in a new middle east

Abstract

regime? What about the Iran-Iraq nuclear entanglement? Can both issues be dealt with under a regional arrangement? Can new global approaches be reconciled with a regional approach in the Middle East? This article attempts to identify and explore some of these issues, examining the Middle Eastern nuclear situation in light of the experience of Iraq, North Korea, South Africa, and Latin America. It begins with a tour de horizon of both the positive and negative nonproliferation trends in the region, then considers the deadlock on the nuclear issue as manifested in recent regional discussions. Since both Arabs and Israelis now agree that the long-term objective of those talks should be the establishment of a zone free of all weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons (WMDFZ), the article examines the feasibility of such a zone in the Middle East by comparing the situation in this region with both the establishment of a nuclear-weaponsfree zone (NWFZ) in South America under the Treaty of Tlatelolco and South Africa’s unilateral decision to dismantle its nuclear weapons program and join the NPT. Although my findings present a rather pessimistic assessment of the near-term likelihood of establishing a NWFZ in the Middle East, they also point to other possible confidence-building measures that could eventually lead to the establishment of such a zone. Finally, the article comments more optimistically on the applicability to the Middle East of the recent proposal for a global ban on the production of fissile material.