The ROMS IAS Data Assimilation And Prediction System: Quantifying Uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract : The long-term scientific goals of this research project are: 1. To develop a state-of-the-art ocean 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation and ocean forecasting system for the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS); 2. To develop a state-of-the-art suite of post-processing and diagnostic tools in support of ROMS 4D-Var; 3. To gain the necessary experience using the ROMS 4D-Var systems in complex circulation environments; 4. To train the next generation of users of the ROMS 4D-Var system. The main objectives of this project are: (i) to assess the impact of observations on ocean state estimates and the ensuing forecasts; (ii) to quantify the expected errors in 4D-Var ocean circulation estimates; and (iii) to develop multimodel ensemble and superensemble methods for ocean models. The primary tool used is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the Terraincoordinate Ocean Modeling System (TOMS). To address the aforementioned goals and objectives, we are using a recently developed suite of tools that utilize the tangent linear (TL), adjoint (AD), and finite-amplitude tangent linear (RP) versions of the ROMS/TOMS code.