Abstract
Understanding the phenological sensitivity of keystone plant species, such as oaks, to climate variables provides a foundation for assessing the impacts of changing climate on ecosystem resilience, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration. This study assessed the responsiveness of bud burst, flowering, and fruiting phenophases of five native California oaks to climate variables using 2012–2019 USA National Phenology Network data, which are contributed by scientists and trained volunteers. Climate data included seasonal measurements of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures. Phenophase data for five oak species: Quercus agrifolia Née and Quercus kelloggii Newb. from Quercus section Lobatae (red oaks), Quercus douglasii Hook. & Arn., Quercus garryana Douglas ex Hook., and Quercus lobata Née from Quercus section Quercus (white oaks) were analyzed. The majority of the trees in the study were located in California, although a small number of sites were beyond their normal distribution ranges. No significant differences were found among species for bud burst and fruiting onsets using ANOVA and Tukey HSD tests. However, significant differences were identified between the flowering onsets of the white oaks Quercus lobata and Quercus douglasii and between Quercus lobata and the red oak Quercus agrifolia. Multiple regression models identified the strongest climate predictors of oak phenophase onset as: (1) winter precipitation, (2) mean accumulated precipitation, and (3) maximum winter temperature, so that winter precipitation and temperature have been found to be the main climate drivers of vegetative growth and reproductive potential for these native California oaks.
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