The Role of Temperature in Modifying the Risk of Ozone-Attributable Mortality under Future Changes in Climate: A Proof-of-Concept Analysis.

Abstract

Air pollution risk assessments typically estimate ozone-attributable mortality counts using concentration-response (C-R) parameters from epidemiologic studies that treat temperature as a potential confounder. However, some recent epidemiologic studies have indicated that temperature can modify the relationship between short-term ozone exposure and mortality, which has potentially important implications when considering the impacts of climate change on public health. This proof-of-concept analysis quantifies counts of temperature-modified ozone-attributable mortality using temperature-stratified C-R parameters from a multicity study in which the pooled ozone-mortality effect coefficients change in concert with daily temperature. Meteorology downscaled from two global climate models is used with a photochemical transport model to simulate ozone concentrations over the 21st century using two emission inventories: one holding air pollutant emissions constant at 2011 levels and another accounting for reduced emissions through the year 2040. The late century climate models project increased summer season temperatures, which in turn yields larger total counts of ozone-attributable deaths in analyses using temperature-stratified C-R parameters compared to the traditional temperature confounder approach. This analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude and distribution of the temperature-stratified ozone-attributable mortality results, which is a function of regional variability in both the C-R relationship and the model-predicted temperature and ozone.