The role of spatial planning in reducing exposure towards impacts of global sea level rise case study: Northern coast of Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Spatial planning is expected to facilitate climate change adaptation by directing future spatial and infrastructure developments away from zones that are exposed to climate-related hazards. This study attempts to confirm this understanding by mapping the effects of the various spatial plans on the northern coast of Java, Indonesia. First, the study maps the extent of coastal hazards for the baseline year of 2010 using a GIS-based inundation model. An overlay in GIS demonstrates the influence of spatial plans for the projection year of 2030. This allows for calculating the economic losses of the planned developments. The case study shows that the current provincial spatial plans direct land use conversions along the northern coast of Java to continue to occur in the future. This could significantly decrease the regional capacity in dealing with the exposure to coastal inundation. The analysis also demonstrates that a total area of 55,220 ha of land prone to inundation, consisting of protected area (1488 ha), fishponds (32,916 ha) and agricultural land (20,814 ha), is planned to be converted into industry (13,399 ha) and settlements (41,821 ha). Thus, these areas will be also prone to inundation in 2030. This change would potentially lead to an economic loss of 246.6 billion USD. The spatial plans issued by the national and provincial governments for regulating the future land use on the northern coast of Java have not integrated measures against hazards related to global sea level rise. Meanwhile, many existing developments have already been affected by coastal inundation. Rather than reducing the exposure towards coastal flood hazards, the case study shows that spatial plans could even increase the risk of climate-related hazards and cause higher economic losses. These findings provide a different perspective on the role of spatial planning for climate change adaptation than what is stated in the literature.