Abstract
The deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) is an essential strategic objective of sustainable energy development in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Their growing contribution to the total primary energy supply can significantly facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The paper provides findings from an in-depth comparative analysis of RES deployment trends during 2010–2019 in the Baltic countries in the context of energy policy documents of the European Union (EU). The dynamics of targeted RES indicators according to the Renewables Directive 2009/28/EC and National Programmes and the role of renewable energies in mitigating climate change are analysed. A key role of the heating and cooling sector in deploying RES is highlighted and a necessity to implement radical changes in the transport sector of the Baltic countries is revealed. The paper examines changes in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impact of driving factors in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The Kaya identity and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method are used for the decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis conducted, the impact of population change, economic growth, decline of energy intensity, RES deployment and reduction of emission intensity on change of GHG emissions in countries of the BSR and, on average, in the EU-27 during 2010–2019 is revealed.
Highlights
Mitigation of climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the key components of the long-term strategy adopted by the European Union (EU) Commission
Ct = Pt × Gt × Et × Ft × Wt where Ct represents the environmental impact from energy-related GHG emissions in each country in time t, Pt is the national population, GDPt is the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), TPESt is the total primary energy supply, FFt is the total consumption of fossil fuels, Gt is expressed as GDP per capita and is the economic growth factor, Et expressed as the total primary energy supply per GDP is the energy intensity factor, Ft represents the share of fossil fuels in total primary energy supply and is the factor of fossil fuels, Wt expressed as the total
Some potential for increasing the final renewable energy sources (RES) consumption in all three countries can be based on further substitution of coal, oil products, and natural gas by fuelwood in the residential sector: in 2019, the share of imported fossil fuels in the final fuel consumption in this sector amounted to 15.3% in Estonia, 24.9% in Latvia, and 34.6% in Lithuania
Summary
Mitigation of climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the key components of the long-term strategy adopted by the EU Commission. Valuable insights on the relationship between supply and demand of forest bioenergy were presented, and a possible shortage of domestic resources was defined Another important aspect of sustainable energy development in the Baltic states is the contribution to the EU targets for reducing GHG emissions. This study contributes to the existing scientific literature by providing an integrated analysis of RES deployment and trends of energy-related GHG emissions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and other countries of the BSR over the period between the global economic recession and the pandemic crisis This analysis was conducted to reveal factors stimulating and limiting the use of RES in Baltic countries by sectors and by fuels considering favourable environment for economic growth and implementing energy policies for sustainable development.
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