Abstract
China's lithium mines are highly dependant on imports, and the mitigating role of recycling new energy vehicle (NEV) batteries is not yet clear. In this research, a multifactor input GRA-BiLSTM forecasting model for NEV sales is proposed to predict the sales of NEVs under three scenarios from 2023 to 2030, and the number of end-of-life batteries in each year is calculated by the Weibull distribution. The results show that NEV sales in 2030 will reach 15.49 million units in the base scenario, with up to 10.5 Mt of lithium resources recovered from 2023 to 2030, reducing import dependance to 63% overall. Under each scenario, recycled batteries could play a role in reducing the value of lithium import dependance by at least 16%.
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