Abstract
The corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new energy vehicles needs to be systematically evaluated. In this study, we build an enterprise policy compliance model to simulate the dual-credit policy requirements for the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 under different scenarios. The results show that the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 is required to reach 1.78 to 3.97 million under different scenarios. Three factors, i.e., switching from New Europe Driving Cycle (NEDC) to World Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) fuel consumption improvement of conventional vehicles, and credit per new energy vehicle, have a more significant impact on the new energy vehicle production than others. Under the minimum guarantee scenario, a 10% change in the above three factors will lead to a 2.5%, 1.5%, and 0.5% reduction in the production requirement for new energy vehicles.
Highlights
In order to effectively respond to the energy and environmental issues, promote the development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese auto industry, in September 2017, five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), jointly issued the corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy (2017–2020)
The assessment targets for the ratio of CAFC credits and NEV credits are set respectively, and an innovative “linkage” mechanism that connects 2 kinds of credits are proposed to reduce the burden of enterprises and manage the two kinds of credits simultaneously through a unified credit platform, achieving two goals as saving energy and reducing consumption of passenger cars and promoting the development of new energy vehicles
In the Formula, n refers to the number of enterprises; In 2019, there were 144 passenger car makers participating in the accounting; ∑1n CNEV refers to the sum of NEV credit surplus of enterprises participating in the accounting; ∑1n CNEV−p refers to the sum of NEV credit surplus of various enterprises over previous years that can be carried over to the accounting year; please refer to CAFC and NEV Credit Management for details; ∑1n C−CAFC refers to the sum of CAFC credit deficits that are still required to be offset via the purchase of NEV
Summary
In order to effectively respond to the energy and environmental issues, promote the development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese auto industry, in September 2017, five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), jointly issued the corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy (the dualcredit policy) (2017–2020). After the new energy passenger cars are included, the actual value of fuel consumption of the industry is reduced from 6.43 L/100 km in 2016 to 5.56 L/100 km in 2019, with an average annual decrease of 4.73%, which is obvious. In terms of increasing the scale of new energy vehicles production, the total domestic production of new energy passenger cars (including imports) is expected to be about 1.2 million in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 29% in the past five years; The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is increasing year by year, from 1.4% in 2016 to 6.1% in 2020 [1,2]
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