The role of forecasting in the business management system

Abstract

In the market relations of the current economy, when the necessary information about the demand for goods and services is completely unavailable, when it is impossible to predict not only the behavior of competitors but also partners, when it is necessary to make decisions that provide not so much development as the survival of the enterprise, the need for knowledge and use of business forecasting methods is especially important. The problems of forecasting have become recently increasingly complex, as the environment of firms is becoming turbulent and uncertain. Limiting factors that negatively affect the use of forecasting in the domestic environment are the low level of capital accumulation in enterprises, which does not allow to make effective costs for the organization of forecasting. The essence of forecasts is revealed in this paper, their classification is presented and supplemente. The importance of forecasting in business management system is revealed and the main problems that hinder effective forecasting at Ukrainian enterprises are presented. The main advantages of accurate forecasts for business and the consequences of inaccurate and non-existent forecasts are identified. The main stages of forecasting are defined. The effective functioning of enterprises is impossible without the use of forecasting methods in management. It is noted that the choice of the appropriate method for use in a particular situation is an important and difficult task. Managers use those forecasting methods that are most appropriate under the existing constraints and correspond to the situation in the enterprise. However, in practice, managers of some companies neglect them and use different approaches, techniques and principles that, in their opinion, make it possible to abandon the use of forecasting methods. Taking into account the outlined shortcomings, the ways of improving the forecasting process in business management system are given. The author's vision of improving approaches to the use of forecasting opportunities in the activities of enterprises is also proposed and it is offered to develop «Regulations on forecasting», which should provide resources for this process, stages and methods of forecasting and responsibility of performers for quality forecasts. It is noted that taking into account the above mentioned recommendations, Ukrainian companies will be able to avoid many risks of economic activity or reduce their negative impact in the future.