The role of cognitive biases in shaping irrational beliefs: a multi-Study Investigation

Abstract

Irrational beliefs encompass a broad set of beliefs that lack verifiable empirical evidence and contradict scientific principles, often grouped into conspiratorial, pseudoscientific, and paranormal domains. This paper investigated whether these beliefs are rooted in a set of cognitive biases. Across four studies, low socioeconomic status, right-wing political orientation, and religiousness accounted for a substantial portion of irrational beliefs variance. However, cognitive biases consistently contributed incrementally to their prediction, with naturalness bias, omission bias, commitment bias, and the overconfidence effect emerging as the most robust predictors. Our findings indicate the nuanced nature of these relationships, as the predictive power of cognitive biases was consistently higher for conspiracist and pseudoscientific beliefs in comparison to paranormal ones.