The robustness of complex product development projects under design change risk propagation with gray attack information

Abstract

Disruptive design change risk propagation is a key obstacle restricting the success of complex product development (CPD) projects. Considering the incomplete information of initial change source selection, this paper develops the design change risk propagation model with gray attack information based on complex network theory. In this model, parameters π and σ are introduced to describe the gray information from both global and local perspectives. Based on the gray information, four kinds of gray attack strategies are provided. The robustness of the CPD project against design change risk propagation under different gray attacks is analyzed through numerical simulation. The results show that the CPD project is most robust under the small out-degree attack, while is most vulnerable under the large out-degree attack. No matter based on global or local gray information, increasing the gray level of information is beneficial to improve the project robustness under large out-degree attack, while reduces the project robustness under small out-degree attack under certain circumstances. Parameters σ and π have thresholds σ* and π*, which can keep the project robustness stable. This paper has implications for project managers to make reasonable decisions for project information management and provides a new perspective for CPD project robustness prediction and improvement.