The risk assessment of public-private partnership projects using artificial intelligence algorithms

Abstract

Purpose: is to develop an innovative approach to risk management in public-private partnership (PPP) projects using advanced artificial intelligence technologies that allow creating the risk assessment model that takes into account non-linear relationships between various risk factors.Methods: in addition to traditional methods of scientific knowledge, interdisciplinary approaches of risk management and established practice of machine learning were used in the work. The methodological basis of the study was formed by works on the risk assessment and the application of AI algorithms in this area. The empirical basis of the study was the data of the official portal of ROSINFRA on public-private partnership projects.Results: the practice of applying AI algorithms to the task of assessing the risks of PPP-projects in Russia and abroad was studied. It is established that the most effective result is shown by the models based on Random-Forest-Classifier. However, the presented solutions do not take into account Russian economic realities. The authors have structured a database of implemented PPP-projects suitable for risk modeling. The model for assessing the risk of failure to achieve the objectives of Russian PPP-projects has been developed and its quality has been assessed. Recommendations on implementation of the model in the operational loop of PPP projects realization processes are offered.Conclusions and Relevance: the developed model allows, according to the general parameters of PPP project (region, authority, term of agreement, industry and scope of implementation, etc.) with the accuracy of 93% (according to the ROC\AUC metric), to assess the risk that the project will end incorrectly (due to a failed tender, refusal to launch, termination by court decision, cancellation/annulment of the tender). With the help of the model the executive authorities of the Russian Federation can build risk management for PPP projects management in the regions and thus contribute to their efficiency improvement. The article may also become useful for project management practitioners and appraisers.