Abstract
By the time of Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency of Russia in May 2012, the Russian–Turkish rapprochement that began over a decade earlier had become a significant fixture of the Eurasian landscape. Nonetheless, numerous questions remain about the nature of the relation, implications for the region of western Eurasia, and its likely future directions. Four general characteristics of the bilateral relation have emerged, and recognizing them enables a deeper understanding of the opportunities and limits likely to be afforded, for Russia, Turkey, and the region: (a) pragmatism, (b) a multivectored approach to the bilateral relation, (c) commonalities despite contradictions, and (d) durability even despite episodic antagonism. The Russian–Turkish rapprochement has become a defining feature of the Eurasian landscape, but remains an unequal one, on several counts: energy resources, geopolitical strength, military capability, and underlying demographics. Nonetheless, various factors make a deepening rapprochement likely: mutual desirability of increased trade, wariness toward the West, Turkey’s pursuit of a “no enemies” foreign policy, Russia’s interest in regional great-power status, and common interest in regional conflict resolution.
Highlights
Relations between Russia and Turkey improved remarkably in the early 21st century, signaling an important shift away from a very long tradition of distrust, regional competition, and frequent outright hostility, including more than 15 major wars between the Russian and Ottoman Turkish Empires from the 17th to 20th centuries
By the time of Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency of Russia in May 2012, the Russian–Turkish rapprochement that began over a decade earlier had become a significant fixture of the Eurasian landscape
Four general characteristics of the bilateral relation emerged in this process, and understanding them enables a deeper understanding of the opportunities and limits likely to be afforded, for Russia, Turkey, and the broader region of western Eurasia
Summary
Relations between Russia and Turkey improved remarkably in the early 21st century, signaling an important shift away from a very long tradition of distrust, regional competition, and frequent outright hostility, including more than 15 major wars between the Russian and Ottoman Turkish Empires from the 17th to 20th centuries. The Russian–Turkish rapprochement occurred in a broader global context of strained relations with the West in general and the United States in particular, on the part of both Russia and Turkey, for somewhat different reasons.
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