Interdependence, Balancing and Conflict in Russian–Turkish Relations

Abstract

This article provides a realist account of the puzzling trajectory of Russian–Turkish bilateral relations since the early 2000s. Between 2003 and 2011 these two major Eurasian powers engaged in an unprecedented level of political cooperation under the framework of “strategic partnership.” Bilateral relations deteriorated after 2011, indicating a return to a more competitive equilibrium. Two factors explain this pattern of cooperation and conflict: (a) the growth of economic interdependence between Russia and Turkey, based on energy partnership in particular, (b) the convergence of Moscow and Ankara’s security interests in Eurasia.