The Return of Geopolitical Blocs

Abstract

The world order appears to be reverting to geopolitical blocs with associated spheres of influence. Although the Cold War officially ended three decades ago, a cold peace has arisen, manifested in the return of old adversarial dynamics amid Russia’s resurgence and sharpening strategic competition between China and the United States. As a result, three tentative blocs are emerging, albeit ones that are less ideologically driven than those of the Cold War: a renewed yet diminished Western bloc; a large but leaderless Eurasian bloc; and a confluence of swing states not bound to any particular hegemon. While such divisions increase the likelihood of global conflict, the West’s relative political cohesion should enable it to continue to hold sway. Nonetheless, the West’s ability to retain a global leadership role could yet be undermined by the emergence of an increasingly illiberal America.