The Resolution of the Cambodian Conflict: Assessing the Explanatory Value of Zartman's `Ripeness Theory'

Abstract

This study is an analysis of the explanatory value of I. William Zartman's `ripeness theory' in the resolution of the Cambodian conflict. This is done through the identification and testing of the core concepts in Zartman's theoretical approach to the study of conflict resolution in studies ranging from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. The identified core concepts are `hurting stalemate', `ripe moment' and `ripe for resolution'. The development of the conflict in Cambodia is outlined from its background in the 1970s through the different phases of the conflict, from Vietnam's military intervention, launched in late 1978, to the formal resolution of the conflict in 1991. The empirical developments of the Cambodian conflict show that it has to be analysed at three different levels — the internal Cambodian level, the regional level and the global level. The main finding of the study is that Zartman's theoretical approach may have some explanatory value in the case of the resolution of the conflict situation at the internal Cambodian level. No explanatory value is identified at the regional and global levels of the conflict. Thus, if all three levels of the conflict situation are taken into account, no overall explanatory value of Zartman's theoretical approach has been established.