Enhancing Ripeness: Transition from Conflict to Negotiation

Abstract

Introduction This chapter originates in a basic puzzle about escalation and de-escalation in conflict and strategies to resolve it. The aim is to elucidate the problematique of how adversaries in a seemingly intractable conflict reach a point where they seek to resolve conflict through negotiations. How are we to explain and conceptualize the transition from conflict escalation to de-escalation? Why do adversaries come to embrace negotiations at a specific time, despite uncertainties and risks of failure? Which strategies may be used to enhance the prospect for a negotiated settlement? One theoretical way to approach these questions is to utilize ripeness theory (Zartman 1989a). Ripeness theory illuminates the linkage between conflict escalation and negotiation through its emphasis on a specific situation, a ripe moment, that is favorable for timing de-escalation strategies. Diplomatic history, however, reveals several accounts in which such opportunities have been lost because of an inability of political leaders to act upon ripe moments. Such moments need to be seized, as argued by several scholars, if they are to be transformed into a negotiation process (Rubin 1991; Hampson 1996a; Zartman 2001). Hence, the critical phase between a ripe moment and the initial stages of negotiations requires a more thorough analysis. This chapter aims to enlarge the notion of ripeness through a process-oriented perspective that strives to highlight the transition between escalation and negotiation.