The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamic relations between economic activity, tourism expenditures, and real exchange rate in 9 most visited OECD countries using annual panel data for 2005-2019. To examine the dynamic relations, we first carried out the panel unit root tests to determine the degree of the integration of the variables. And then, using the Westerlund error-correction-based panel cointegration test, we found evidence of the existence of long-run relationships among variables. Therefore, we estimated a panel VECM model to obtain evidence of the causal relationship between the variables. According to the major finding of the studies, there is unidirectional causality from the real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures to real GDP. Also, real exchange rate granger causes tourism expenditures in the short run. Test results also provide evidence that both real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures granger cause to real GDP in the long run. However, there is no evidence of long-run granger causality when real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures are dependent variables. The results of the study imply that to create sustainable growth in the sample countries, they should increase the tourism sector's contribution to GDP, and the countries also should maintain their external competitiveness.