Abstract
This study integrated local and scientific knowledge to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on food security in West Pokot County, Kenya from 1980–2012. It characterized rainfall and temperature from 1980–2011 and the phenology of agricultural vegetation, assessed land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and surveyed local knowledge and perceptions of the relationships between climate change and variability, land use decisions, and food (in)security. The 124 respondents were aware of long-term changes in their environment, with 68% strongly believing that climate has become more variable. The majority of the respondents (88%) reported declining rainfall and rising temperatures, with respondents in the lowland areas reporting shortened growing seasons that affected food production. Meteorological data for 1980–2011 confirmed high inter-annual rainfall variability around the mean value of 973.4 mm/yr but with no notable trend. Temperature data showed an increasing trend between 1980 and 2012 with lowlands and highlands showing changes of +1.25 °C and +1.29 °C, respectively. Land use and land cover changes between 1984 and 2010 showed cropland area increased by +4176% (+33,138 ha), while grassland and forest areas declined by –49% (–96,988 ha) and –38% (–65,010 ha), respectively. These area changes illustrate human-mediated responses to the rainfall variability, such as increased stocking after good rainfall years and crop area expansion. The mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values ranged from 0.36–0.54 within a year, peaking in May and September. For weather-related planning, respondents relied on radio (64%) and traditional forecasters (26%) as predominant information sources. Supporting continuous climate change monitoring, intensified early warning systems, and disseminating relevant information to farmers could help farmers adopt appropriate adaptation strategies.
Highlights
Introduction published maps and institutional affilClimate variability and change are a significant threat to food security in Africa and many regions of the developing world, which are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture [1,2,3,4] and, highly sensitive to changes in rainfall patterns
Given an existing context of substantial variability and uncertainty in most Kenyan production systems, it is increasingly apparent that adaptation measures will not be adopted without building upon how local people perceive and respond to longterm processes of climate change [29]. This study addresses this gap by using West Pokot as a case study to demonstrate how the ambiguous temperature and rainfall data for the county account for clear land use and land cover changes, which can be meaningfully interpreted using the local population’s understandings of climate and food security outcomes
The results confirm that the climate in West Pokot has changed and is already having implications for food security
Summary
Introduction published maps and institutional affilClimate variability and change are a significant threat to food security in Africa and many regions of the developing world, which are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture [1,2,3,4] and, highly sensitive to changes in rainfall patterns. The complexity of African agro-ecologies, coupled with a lack of long-term rainfall data from the past century in many African regions, makes it hard to state any conclusions about annual precipitation trends during this time [12]. This has set limits for food production [13], with negative consequences for farmers in terms of their food security and livelihood across the world, especially in developing countries [2,13,14,15]. Neufeldt et al [16] explained that iations
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