Abstract
Malaria is a major health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries and in the south of Iran. In this study, due to the importance of the disease in Sistan and Baluchestan province, the influence of temperature, humidity, and rainfall on malaria has been evaluated in areas with a high incidence of malaria. Malaria incidence data were inquired from the Province Health Authority, and climatic variables were inquired from the Bureau of Meteorology from 2000 to 2012 and were analyzed on a monthly basis. Changes in incidence of malaria with climatic factors were analyzed by negative binomial regression by Stata 11, and the correlations were calculated with Minitab15 for determining the potential impact of meteorological variables with and without lags on malaria transmission. The incidence of malaria had a significant positive correlation with the average, minimum, and maximum monthly temperatures and a negative correlation with rainfall and low humidity (<60%). However, humidity >60% had a positive impact on incidence; as in the town of Chabahar after adjusting variables such as rainfall and temperature; every one percent increase in humidity caused a 4% increase in malaria incidence in the same month and a significant 6% increase in the next month. Temperature and humidity over 60% are effective climate parameters in the incidence of malaria. These factors should be considered in planning for controlling and preventing malaria.
Highlights
Malaria is one of the most important parasitic diseases and one of the most important health problems in a number of countries, countries in tropical and subtropical regions of the world (Azizi, Janghorbani, & Hatami, 2011)
The total monthly number of the reported cases of malaria in Sistan–Baluchestan province was determined in each town
Plasmodium vivax was the predominant parasite in Sistan–Baluchestan province with 80.95% of the cases, and in, for example, Nikshahr, 95.88% of the parasites were vivax
Summary
Malaria is one of the most important parasitic diseases and one of the most important health problems in a number of countries, countries in tropical and subtropical regions of the world (Azizi, Janghorbani, & Hatami, 2011). The disease is endemic in many countries of the world. Its economic burden has imposed many negative effects on public health (Hatami, 2009). Between 2001 and 2009, the global burden of malaria has increased to more than 34 million (Edlund et al, 2012). According to the latest estimates from the World Health Organization in 2015, there were 214 million new cases (in a range of 149-303 million) of this disease globally and about 438,000 deaths (in a range of 236,000-635,000) have happened, and almost 306,000 deaths occurred in children below the age of 5 years (World Health Organization [WHO], 2015)
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