Abstract
It is an essential demand to establish an effective financial risk early-warning system for financial security. But some factors have a lagging effect on financial risk. So this paper aims to construct a reasonable and practical indicator system for financial risk early-warning. First, determine the explained variables of the indicator made up by Chinese financial stress index. Second, confirm the explanatory variables consisting of the macroeconomic variable, the currency credit variable, asset price variable and the macroeconomic variable of correlative economic powers. Finally, propose an optimum forecast equation to predict financial systemic risk status. In conclusion, the forecast outcomes indicate that Chinese financial systemic risk is on rising trend in the past three quarters in 2011 and higher than the peak of 2008, whereas financial systemic risk declines at the fourth quarter.
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