Abstract
China faces a critical economic structural transformation with increasing financial instability and uncertainty, necessitating a greater need for accurate measurement of systemic financial risk. In the paper, this work analyses the systemic financial risk in China between 2011 and 2020 based on financial development, fragility and risk indicators and the world economy to construct a comprehensive index of systemic financial risk (CISFR). The results show an upward trend in China’s financial risk in the past 10 years and a mid-to-high level fluctuation in the past five years, mainly driven by risks in the banking system, securities market and real estate market. In 2021–2022, China’s financial system is still in a high-risk stage, and high systemic risks are still an important economic issue. The study’s comprehensive index method can be extended to emerging economies. It reflects the main driving factors of financial risk by assigning weights to basic indicators from a multidimensional perspective, thus providing a reference for policymakers to prevent and control financial risk.
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