The Red Sea Regional Security Complex: The Implications of the Red Sea Forum for Ethiopian National Security

Abstract

The Red Sea Forum (RSF), since its foundation in December 2018, has attracted the attention of politicians and scholars near and far. The exclusion of Ethiopia from the forum disappointed the government, though the country is the most populous and anchor state in the Horn of Africa. Many of the objectives set by RSF are apparently unattainable without the direct or indirect participation of Ethiopia. The aim of this study, therefore, is to examine the implications of the Red Sea Forum for the national security of Ethiopia. The study employed a qualitative research method. In doing so, both primary and secondary sources were consulted. Beyond reviewing published and unpublished materials, key informant interviews were conducted with purposively selected experts from the Ethiopian Navy Force, the Maritime Institute of Ethiopia, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study asserted that the Red Sea Region has a complex security terrain where security alignment and realignment with regional and non-regional powers are persistent mechanisms of survival. This is caused by asymmetrical power distribution and security dilemmas among regional states. Among others, neutralising the subversive activities of Egypt, serving as a platform for potential funding and access to energy resources, helping to mitigate the tragic deaths of Ethiopian immigrants crossing the sea, and serving as a source of naval technical know-how and maritime information are some of the potential benefits of being a member of the RSF. Port shutdowns, naval blockades, suffocation of alternative port access, and damage to underwater internet cables in the Red Sea are some of the perceived threats from RSF identified in the study. To enhance the potential benefits and mitigate the perceived threats from RSF, Ethiopia should adopt multilateral diplomacy and military deterrence as a counter strategies.