Abstract
The significant fluctuation of industrial electricity consumption has a high impact on power load, which makes the research on recurrence intervals between extreme events of theoretical and practical significance. The study uses a high-frequency data of heavy and light industries and employs recurrence interval analysis in different thresholds. We find that the reoccurrence interval of volatility can fit with the stretched exponential function and the probability density functions of recurrence intervals in various thresholds shows a scaling behavior. Then, the conditional probability density function and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis demonstrate the existence of short-range correlation, long-range correlation, and multifractal properties, respectively. We further construct a hazard function, introduce recurrence intervals into VaR calculation and establish a functional relationship between average recurrence interval and threshold. Following this result, we also shed light on policy discussion for multi-industrial electricity supply management.
Highlights
Over the past few decades, China has snowballed and surpassed Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second-largest economy [1]
Compared to 2015, electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 11.2% and continued to maintain a high growth rate, indicating that service consumption led the growth of China’s economy
Based on the analysis of probability density function and risk estimation, we can see that the power load of light industry is more likely to fluctuate than for heavy industry in China
Summary
Over the past few decades, China has snowballed and surpassed Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second-largest economy [1]. As for energy consumption, China’s electricity consumption has exceeded the United States in 2011 and ranked number one in the world [2]. In 2016, China’s total electricity consumption was 5.92 trillion kWh with an annual growth rate of 5.0%. Compared to 2015, electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 11.2% and continued to maintain a high growth rate, indicating that service consumption led the growth of China’s economy. The electricity consumption of urban and rural household industry, secondary industry, and manufacturing industry increased by
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