Abstract
The energy management of office buildings has been a rising concern for owners, researchers, and energy suppliers. The volatility of power load in office buildings threatens energy consumption and risks device security. This paper investigates the load fluctuation patterns in an office building based on user data, using recurrence interval analysis for different thresholds. The recurrence intervals of volatility are fitted by stretched exponential distribution, from which the probability density function is derived. Then, the short-term and long-term memory effect on the fluctuations are learned by conditional probability density function and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, respectively. A hazard function is further established to analyze the risk estimation of load volatility and derive the value at risk (VaR). Thus, a functional relationship has been established between average recurrence interval and threshold. The methodology and analysis results addressed in this paper help to understand load fluctuation patterns and aid in the design of energy consumption strategies in office buildings. According to the results of our research, conclusions and management suggestions are provided at the end of this paper.
Highlights
The excessive energy consumption of office buildings is becoming a critical and urgent problem in urban development
The energy consumption of high-rise buildings in the heating-cooling process is much higher than the global average, which makes it urgent to strengthen energy management for office buildings and promote the rational and efficient utilization of energy [1,2]
Recurrence interval analysis (RIA) [23]—which belongs to the category of time series analysis—is introduced to investigate the fluctuation patterns of energy consumption in office buildings
Summary
The excessive energy consumption of office buildings is becoming a critical and urgent problem in urban development. The forecast on power load has become an important research focus and has been investigated continuously in recent years, from which power suppliers and consumers can benefit to develop better energy management. Recurrence interval analysis (RIA) [23]—which belongs to the category of time series analysis—is introduced to investigate the fluctuation patterns of energy consumption in office buildings. The load of a single building may have little effect on the power grid, but considering the process of Chinese urbanization and its countless buildings in cities, multiple load fluctuations at the same time will threaten the security of the energy supply. With regard to electricity market reform in China, both the amount and the volatility of the power load are essential and of great value to formulate a suitable energy supply strategy and reduce the running cost of buildings.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
