The Radial Interplanetary Field Strength at Sunspot Minimum as Polar Field Proxy and Solar Cycle Predictor

Abstract

The minimum value of the geomagnetic aa index has served as a remarkably successful predictor of solar cycle amplitude. This value is reached near or just after sunspot minimum, when both the near-Earth solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength fall to their lowest values. At this time, the heliospheric current sheet is flattened toward the heliographic equator and the dominant source of the IMF is the Sun’s axial dipole moment, which, in turn, has its source in the polar fields. As recognized previously, the success of aamin as solar cycle precursor provides support for dynamo models in which the sunspots of a given cycle are produced by winding up the poloidal field built up during the previous cycle. Because they are highly concentrated toward the poles by the surface meridional flow, the polar fields are difficult to measure reliably. Here we point out that the observed value of the radial IMF strength at solar minimum can be used to constrain the polar field measurements, and that this parameter, which is directly proportional to the Sun’s axial dipole strength, may be an even better solar cycle predictor than geomagnetic activity.