The Quasi-Quintennial Timescale—Synthesis

Abstract

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important contributors to interannual variability on Earth (Diaz and Markgraf 2000). It is an aperiodic phenomenon that tends to reoccur within the range of 2 to 7 years, and it is manifest by the alternation of extreme warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events. There is also evidence (Allen 2000) that the aperiodic ENSO phenomenon must be considered in conjunction with climate fluctuations at decadal to multidecadal time frames that may modulate ENSO’s lower frequency variability. Numerous studies show global climatic impacts associated with the ENSO phenomenon. Further, there is considerable evidence to indicate that ENSO impacts the climate of both middle and high latitudes, and a recent analysis (figure S.1, discussed below) provides a global picture of warm versus cold ENSO conditions. Consequently, it is not surprising that many LTER sites, from the Arctic to Antarctic, show evidence of ENSO-related fluctuations in environmental variables. The quasi-quintennial timescale of variability is second only to seasonal variability in driving worldwide weather patterns. Consequently, an important theme in part II is the worldwide influence of ENSO-related climate variability and the teleconnected spatial patterns of this variability. Also, a common theme for several ecosystems discussed in this section is their high sensitivity to small climatic changes that are subsequently amplified and cascaded through the system. For example, the narrow temperature threshold for an ice-to-water phase change may create a pronounced nonlinear ecosystem response to what is a relatively small temperature shift (as demonstrated for the McMurdo Dry Valleys). Or alternatively, this narrow temperature threshold may shift a sea ice–dominated ecosystem (Palmer LTER) to a more oceanic marine ecosystem by reducing the seasonality and magnitude of the sea ice habitat. Such nonlinear amplifications of small climatic changes can increase the ecological response and make it more detectable within the natural background of variability. We explore these themes here. To illustrate the global footprint of ENSO variability, composites of yearly averaged El Niño and La Niña conditions for surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST, Reynolds and Smith 1994) were generated.