Abstract
In this article, we view India not as a unitary rational actor—the conventional conceptualisation in strategic studies—but rather as a liberal democratic polis composed of the three arenas of civil society, political society and the state. We seek answers to two related questions. The first pertains to the changes that are currently underway in Indian state and society. What is the probable impact of these internal dynamics upon strategic stability in the region? We restrict our analysis to the four most important factors in each of the three political arenas. The answer we arrive at is that the majority of factors making up the internal dynamics of contemporary India either enhance regional stability or, at best, have a mixed impact upon it. Our second concern is to discern the sources of strategic surprises from an Indian perspective. Are the stimuli for strategic surprises from the Indian perspective more internal or external? We conclude that the two India–Pakistan crises since overt nuclearisation in 1998—the 1999 Kargil Conflict and the 13 December 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament—presented a strategic surprise for India, not Pakistan. Far from being surprised, Pakistan could be considered the prime mover behind these two strategic surprises.
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