The Prospect of the China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Strategy in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Recently, China has pursued the ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategy. It is a China’s grand national strategy that aims at establishing an Economic Community or further a Community of Destiny in Eurasia by constructing the northern overland route of ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the southern route of ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The purpose of the strategy is internally to open the era for China’s second economic growth by creating economic driving forces and securing energy resources outside. Externally, it is a strategy of expansion to lead a regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific area. To be fruitful, the ‘One Belt, One Road’ must be accepted by states on its line of connectivity. This paper analyzes the receptivity of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ by the ASEAN states by exploring its economic interdependence with China and its geo-economic structure that might constrain it. The ASEAN countries’ trade is highly dependent on China. The ‘One Belt, One Road’ would complement the ASEAN Connectivity project. In that aspect, the receptivity for the strategy in Southeast Asia is potentially high. However, in light of the concept of the ASEAN Centrality, its receptivity could be circumscribed by the mechanism of a complex balancing stemming from the great power game with the United States and Japan. To overcome it, China must approach the ASEAN countries not for pursuing its hegemony in Southeast Asia but for the co-survival and co-progress with them.. That is a way to make the ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategy effective and fruitful