The prognosis of schizophrenia: A systematic review and meta-analysis with meta-regression of 20-year follow-up studies

Abstract

ObjectiveThe aim was to examine the general outcome of schizophrenia after 20 years or more. MethodsUsing the PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis with meta-regression on long-term follow-up studies of schizophrenia up until April 21, 2021. We included prospective studies with at least 20 years of follow-up on patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, and the studies had to include face-to-face clinical evaluation. We examined outcome in three nested groups: ‘recovery’, ‘good or better’ (including also ‘recovery’), and ‘moderate or better’ (including also ‘recovery’ and ‘good or better’). We used random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression to examine mean estimates and possible moderators. ResultsWe identified 1089 records, which were screened by two independent researchers. 14 prospective studies (1991 patients) published between 1978 and 2020 were found eligible. The studies used a range of different scales and definitions for outcome, and some used the same definitions for different outcomes. To compare outcome across studies, we designed and applied a unified template for outcome definitions and cutoffs, based on earlier studies' recommendations. Our meta-analysis found that 24.2 % had ‘recovered’ (n = 246, CI: 20.3–28.0 %), 35.5 % had a ‘good or better’ outcome (n = 766, CI: 26.0–45.0%), and 59.7% had ‘moderate or better’ outcome (n = 1139, CI: 49.3–70.1 %). ConclusionsThe results contribute to debunk the myth that schizophrenia inevitably has a deteriorating course. Recovery is certainly possible. Schizophrenia remains, however, a severe and complex mental disorder, exhibiting a limited change in prognosis despite >100 years of research and efforts to improve treatment.