Abstract
With the wide application of the O2O business model, merchants offer mobile coupons to attract customers to use offline. Offline use means that mobile coupons can be used when customers come to store to consume after receiving online. Using precision marketing methods to offer effective mobile coupons that meet consumer spending habits and preferences can increase receiving rate and offline use rate. In the background of O2O and precision marketing, this paper studies the behavior of mobile coupons’ online receiving and offline use. Based on the real data of Alibaba’s consumers, this paper uses Bayesian network, Copula function and Monte Carlo simulation to construct the consumption behavior model with receiving mobile coupons and the consumer behavior model without receiving mobile coupons. And then it analyzes two factors, which are discount and distance, how to impact on the offline use of mobile coupons. Finally, it predicts the offline use probability of mobile coupons under these two consumption behavior models.
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