The Probabilistic Efficiency Frontier: A Value Assessment of Treatment Options in Hepatitis C

Abstract

The German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) recommends the concept of the efficiency frontier to assess health care interventions. The efficiency frontier supports regulatory decisions on reimbursement prices for the appropriate allocation of health care resources. Until today this cost-benefit assessment framework has only been applied on the basis of individual patient-relevant endpoints. This contradicts the reality of a multi-dimensional patient benefit. The objective of this study was to illustrate the operationalization of multi-dimensional benefit considering the uncertainty in clinical effects and preference data in order to calculate the efficiency of different treatment options for hepatitis C (HCV). This case study shows how methodological challenges could be overcome in order to use the efficiency frontier for economic analysis and health care decision-making. The operationalization of patient benefit was carried out on several patient-relevant endpoints. Preference data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study and clinical data based on clinical trials, which reflected the patient and the clinical perspective, respectively, were used for the aggregation of an overall benefit score. A probabilistic efficiency frontier was constructed in a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 random draws. Patient-relevant endpoints were modeled with a beta distribution and preference data with a normal distribution. The assessment of overall benefit and costs provided information about the adequacy of the treatment prices. The parameter uncertainty was illustrated by the price-acceptability-curve and the net monetary benefit. Based on the clinical and preference data in Germany, the interferon-free treatment options proved to be efficient for the current price level. The interferon-free therapies of the latest generation achieved a positive net cost-benefit. Within the decision model, these therapies showed a maximum overall benefit. Due to their high additional benefit and approved prices, the therapies lie above of the extrapolated efficiency frontier, which suggests that these options have efficient reimbursement prices. Considering uncertainty, even a higher price would have resulted in a positive cost-benefit ratio. IQWiG's efficiency frontier was used to assess the value of different treatment options in HCV. This study demonstrates that the probabilistic efficiency frontier, price-acceptability-curve and the net monetary benefit can contribute essential information to reimbursement decisions and price negotiations.