The Predictors of Surgery for Symptomatic, Atraumatic Full-Thickness Rotator Cuff Tears Change Over Time: Ten-Year Outcomes of the MOON Shoulder Prospective Cohort.

Abstract

A prospective cohort study was conducted to assess the predictors of failure of nonoperative treatment, defined as the patient undergoing surgery for symptomatic, atraumatic full-thickness rotator cuff tears. We present the 10-year follow-up data of this population to determine if predictors for surgery change over time, and secondarily we report the outcomes of the cohort. At the time of enrollment, demographic, symptom, rotator cuff anatomy, and patient-reported outcome data were collected in patients with symptomatic, atraumatic full-thickness rotator cuff tears. Patients underwent a standard physical therapy protocol for 6 to 12 weeks. Patient data were then collected at 1, 2, 5, 7, and 10 years. Failure of nonoperative treatment was defined as the patient electing to undergo surgery. Of the 452 patients in the original cohort, 20 patients (5%) withdrew from the study, 37 (9%) died before 10 years, and 40 (9%) were otherwise lost to follow-up. A total of 115 patients (27.0%) underwent a surgical procedure at some point during the 10-year follow-up period. Of these patients, 56.5% underwent surgery within 6 months of enrollment and 43.5%, between 6 months and 10 years. Low patient expectations regarding the efficacy of physical therapy were found to be a predictor of early surgery. Workers' Compensation status and activity level were more important predictors of later surgery. Patient-reported outcome measures all improved following physical therapy. For patients who did not undergo a surgical procedure, patient-reported outcome measures did not decline over the 10-year follow-up period. Low patient expectations regarding the efficacy of physical therapy were found to be a predictor of early surgery, whereas Workers' Compensation status and activity level were predictors of later surgery. Physical therapy was successful in >70% of patients with symptomatic, atraumatic full-thickness rotator cuff tears at 10 years. Outcome measures improved with physical therapy and did not decline over the 10-year follow-up period. Prognostic Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.