The Prediction Research of COD Emissions in Jilin Province Based on the Environment of the 12<sup>th</sup> Five-Year Plan

Abstract

Based on Jilin province and nine cities COD emissions data of 2010, this paper is an attempt to quantitatively analyze the area distribution patterns of two indices (COD emissions per capita and COD emissions per unit production value) as well as their causes. The COD emissions from 2000-2010 and the per capita GDP to establish the environmental learning curve of Jilin province are constructed, in order to analyze the load of emission and potential mitigation. And prediction of the COD emissions discharge trend during the 12th Five-Year plan, the potential mitigation to make sure the direction of emission reduction is analyzed.The chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions of Jilin province were 352200 tons in 2010. It was declined by 2.4% over the previous year. These emissions were accomplished 130.5% of the "11th five-year plan" emission reduction task[1]. However, in the process of urbanization, they continue to accelerate and high-speed economic growth. The task of the COD emission reduction at 8.8% is hard to achieve by 2015. Predictions can be made by using the environment learning curve on the relationship between the COD emissions and Jilin province economic development through environmental statistics. We analysed the potential reduction of COD emission of "twelfth five-year" in Jilin province and determined the direction of emission reduction.