The Prediction of Vehicle Collision Risk in Traffic Conflict Zone Based on Bayesian Network

Abstract

The external traffic environment has a big influence to the traffic safety during the area of traffic conflict place，and to analysis the relationship between the external traffic environment factors and driving safety is helpful to improve the traffic safety. The method of comprehensive analysis the historical data and expert survey data is used to explore this question. And at the same time, the collision risk prediction model during the traffic conflict place is built by the Bayesian network. According to the data analyzing, the node variable, the state of variable and the conditional probability table of this model is also built. Finally, the software of Hugin is used to deal with the posteriori probability of collision risk, and the result proved that this model can predict the collision risk accurately during the traffic conflict area, and the data analyzing showed that the factor of the driver's intention, the vehicle speed and the headway have a significance influence to the traffic safety.