The Prediction of LUCC in Ejina Oasis based on Markov model

Abstract

In order to predict the changes of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) in Ejina Oasis (EO) after water resources redistribution in Heihe River, the remote sensing images in 2002 and 2006 were selected, a new set of land use categories was developed and the Markov model was employed. Results show that: From 2010 to 2022, it still have a large change in the land use of Ejina Oasis, the area of farmland, forestland, grassland, water, construction land continue to increase, among which water is the fastest increased than the other increased land use type, the area of increase is 56.88km(2). At same time, the area of unused land continue to decline, among which saline land is the fastest reduced than others reduced land use type, the area of reduce is 23.70km(2). But the area of increment and decrement are both gradually lessen. The ecological environment of Ejina Oasis still be a state of recovery from 2010 to 2022, the proportion of farmland, forestland, grassland and water have a significant increase, while sand, saline land have a abvious decrease, and the structure of land use in 2022 is more reasonable than it in 2010.