Abstract
Abstract. This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.
Highlights
The city of Venice is situated inside the Venice Lagoon, which is connected to the Adriatic Sea by three inlets (Fig. 1)
The hydrodynamic regime in the canals is driven by tidal forcing as a consequence of phase lags and level gradients occurring at the city boundary
High-resolution weather forcing from a limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model will generally produce an accurate sea level forecast a few days ahead, and it constitutes the basis for storm surge warnings in the region
Summary
The city of Venice is situated inside the Venice Lagoon, which is connected to the Adriatic Sea by three inlets (Fig. 1). In November and December 2019, a series of storms created five high tides with water levels exceeding 140 cm These events are called exceptional because only 25 such events have been observed in the last 150 years. Venice is tackling the problem of high water flooding by building mobile barriers (called MOSE, MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) at each inlet of the lagoon. It reviews the forecasting capabilities across Europe where various institutions conduct operational forecasting, including for the Adriatic Sea and the Venice Lagoon. Different methodologies are presented that, in addition to the ones already operational, could significantly improve the forecasting system for Venice, including the operation of the MOSE barriers
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