Abstract
This study was carried out in the Bucegi Natural Park, a protected area of the Romanian Carpathians. It aims at documenting the potential sensitivity of six widespread Natura 2000 habitat types and of all plants with conservative value (200 taxa) in the mountain area, to the changes in temperature and humidity, predicted for this century. Regional expert knowledge and environmental indicator values were considered in assessing the potential habitat’s sensitivity. The results support the evidence that sensitivity to temperature may be potentially higher for habitats at alpine and subalpine levels (bushes and grasslands) and medium for forest habitats. Sensitivity to moisture was detected as potentially high for forest habitats and as medium for bushes and grasslands at high mountain elevation. Microthermophilic plants have shown a greater share (76-79%) in alpine and subalpine communities, and the hydrophilic plants (86-96%) in forest communities. About 80% of plants of conservation value (microthermophilic or hydrophilic plants) may be potentially sensitive to predicted warming and drought and 44% of them (microthermophilic and hydrophilic plants) to the changes of both parameters. Climate scenarios (2011-2100) and sensitivity maps (Sat – image interpretation with GIS for the whole mountain area) are included.
Highlights
In recent years, attention has focused on climate change as a threat to natural heritage assigned to different categories of protected areas (IPCC 2007)
Trends predicted for precipitation are quite heterogeneous, since the climate scenarios for 2011-2040 did not show a clear change of current conditions in the Bucegi Natural Park
With respect to protected plants growing at high altitude in the Carpathians in restrictive ecological life conditions, we suggest that a possible high sensitivity to temperature and humidity may be taken into consideration, especially in the case of the predicted combination of less precipitation and warming
Summary
Attention has focused on climate change as a threat to natural heritage (ecosystems, habitats and species) assigned to different categories of protected areas (IPCC 2007). Special attention was addressed to the possible impact of climate change on plants and vegetation, as one of their fundamentals of life. The studies developed by Thuiller et al (2005) for 1,350 European plant species Received in revised form: 10 Mar 2020.
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