The potential resource rent from Norwegian fisheries

Abstract

National wealth can be estimated via the System of National Accounts (SNA). According to SNA-numbers, Norwegian fisheries contributed negatively to the national wealth in the period 1984–2016 with exception of the years 2010–2011 and 2015–2016. Because all parameter values entering the calculation of national wealth are conditional on the existing management regime, the potential value of the natural resources may be concealed. This paper finds that this is the case for the Norwegian fishery sector. Using a numerical optimization model, the paper estimates the contra factual resource rent to be 1.6 billion USD if the fishing quotas were harvested efficiently with the currently available technology. This is 1.2 billion USD more than the observed resource rent in 2011 and means that Norwegian fisheries contribute to national wealth four times more than indicated by 2011 SNA-numbers. Hence, national wealth calculations based on official statistics may trivialize the role of natural resources.