The potential range and future distribution of the endangered lizard Darevskia clarkorum in the Caucasus Biodiversity Hotspot under climate change scenarios

Abstract

The Clarks’ Lizard, Darevskia clarkorum is endemic to the Caucasian biodiversity hotspot, remarkable in terms of biogeography and evolutionary history in the Palearctic Realm. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the current distribution pattern of this species as well as its possible changes under various future climate scenarios. Fieldwork was conducted in Northeastern Anatolia and the Caucasus between 2019 and 2022, and 64 occurrence records and five bioclimatic variables were analysed using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) software. The annual temperature range is the most important variable influencing the distribution of this lizard species. The results showed that potential habitats for the Clarks’ Lizard are wider than its present distribution. It is predicted that under current climate change scenarios, this species’ range will be much more restricted than it is now. With rising greenhouse gas levels and solar radiation rates, the range of this species is expected to shift from northern Anatolia to the Caucasus mountainous areas, and would likely shrink in future. The remaining habitats of this lizard species may be significantly impacted by climate change and human-induced habitat modification.