The potential of renewable-based power plant development towards Bali green and independent electricity supply

Abstract

This paper presents results of a study on the potential for renewable energy-based power plants development in Bali. The renewable energy-based power plants is developed in order to stop dependence of electricity supply from outside Bali and to increase the share of renewable energy in the power supply mix to achieve Bali green and independent electricity and for climate change mitigation. . In this study, AIM-Enduse model was used to estimate the potential of renewable energy-based power plants and GHG emissions reduction from the deployment of renewables in Bali’s power supply mix. There were three scenarios for representing renewable energy-based power plants development in Bali, i.e. baseline (business as usual) and two scenarios (CM1 and CM2) of the deployment of renewables in the power supply mix. The CM1 described conservative scenario of the deployment of renewable in the energy supply mix of Bali’s power plants while CM2 represented optimistic scenario. Since the renewable is considered as carbon neutral, therefore these scenarios can also relate to the mitigation actions to reduce GHG emissions. Under the CM1, GHG emissions reduction potential from the deployment of renewable energy technology in Bali’s power plants and the conversion of coal to natural gas power plants is accounted to about 22% (1.5 MtCO2e) in 2030 and can be targeted up to 32% (4.0 MtCO2e) in 2050. The deployment of renewable energy under the CM1 is 0.96 GW in 2030 and 1.92 GW in 2050. Under the CM2, the GHG emissions reduction potential from the deployment of renewable energy technology in Bali’s power plants and the conversion of coal to natural gas power plants is accounted to about 23% (2.16 MtCO2e) in 2030 and targeted to achieve 27% (4.75 MtCO2e) in 2050. The deployment of renewable energy under the CM2 is more ambitious compared to those in CM2, i.e. 1.39 GW in 2030 and 2.36 GW in 2050.