The Potential of Carbon Emissions Reductions of Public Bikes

Abstract

The reduction of carbon emissions has become a heated background topic in the context of climate change. This paper estimates the potential for carbon reduction from the use of public bikes, on the basis of a travel mode choice model and a carbon emission calculation model. A probability model for the travel mode choice is built to predict travel demands of different modes, and is based on the Logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model. According to this, the generalized travel cost of choosing to walk increases with distance, but the cost of choosing a taxi decreases with distance. When the trip distance is 1.4 km, the walk cost equals to that of the taxi, while if the trip distance is smaller than 1.4 km, the probability of the walk is larger than of a taxi, and vice versa. The case of Ningbo is analyzed. Based on the monthly travel data, the travel characteristics of the public bikes are first analyzed; these indicate that the medium travel distance is 1.44 km, and that the number of trips less than 1.6 km accounts for 70% of all trips. This reveals that the public bike trips are mainly short-distance and in workday rush hour. The related carbon emission reductions of Ningbo on average are 1.97 kg/person and 1.98 kg/km2, and the reductions are positively linearly related to the average hourly total turnover rate, which means the turnover rate is a great parameter to reflect the capability of carbon emission reductions.