Carbon budget management in the civil aviation industry using an interactive control perspective

The Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration is an important energy exporting and high-end chemical base in China, and is an important source of carbon emissions in China. The early achievement of peak carbon emissions in this region is particularly crucial to achieving the national carbon emission reduction targets. However, there is a lack of multi-factor system dynamics analysis of resource-dependent urban agglomerations in Northwest China, as most studies have focused on single or static aspects of developed urban agglomerations. This paper analyses the relationship between carbon emissions and their influencing factors, constructs a carbon emission system dynamics model for the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration, and sets up different single regulation and comprehensive regulation scenarios to simulate and predict the carbon peak time, peak value, and emission reduction potential of each city and urban agglomeration under different scenarios. The results show that: (1) Hohhot and Baotou are expected to reach peak carbon by 2033 and 2031 respectively, under the baseline scenario, while other regions and the urban agglomeration will not be able to reach peak carbon by 2035. (2) Under single regulation scenarios, the effect of factors other than the energy consumption varies across cities, but the energy consumption and environmental protection input are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration. (3) A combination of the economic growth, industrial structure, energy policy, environmental protection, and technology investment is the best measure to achieve carbon peaking and enhance the carbon emission reduction in each region as soon as possible. In the future, we need to coordinate the economic development, energy structure optimisation and transformation, low-carbon transformation of industry, strengthen research on carbon sequestration technology, and further increase the investment in environmental protection to make the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration a resource-saving urban agglomeration with an optimal emission reduction.

With the continuous growth in the volume of global air transportation, the carbon emissions of the civil aviation industry have received increasing attention. Carbon emission reduction in civil aviation is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable social development. This article aims to use system dynamics (SD) methods to establish a carbon emission model for the civil aviation industry that includes economic, demographic, technological, policy, and behavioral factors; analyze the key factors that affect carbon emissions; and explore effective emission reduction strategies. Researchers have found that SD-based carbon emission prediction has a high accuracy and is suitable for predicting carbon emissions in civil aviation. Through different scenario simulations, it has been found that any single emission reduction measure will struggle to effectively contribute to the expected carbon reductions in China’s civil aviation. Simultaneously adopting measures such as improving fuel efficiency, adopting clean energy, and using new-power aircraft is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions from civil aviation. In addition, policy intervention and technological innovation are equally crucial for achieving long-term emission reduction goals. The research results not only provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the aviation industry but also provide a reference for policymakers to formulate comprehensive emission reduction strategies.

Southeast Asia is rich in tropical forests and biodiversity but rapid deforestation and forest degradation have accelerated climate change and threatened sustainable development in the region. Carbon emission reductions through reducing deforestation and forest degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) have been a focal topic of the climate change mitigation since the Bali in 2007. However, only a handful of studies exist so far on this important issue that are suitable to inform the debate with estimates of carbon stocks and emission reductions or removals as a result of REDD+. Our study attempts to analyze the potential emission reductions and removals for a 35-year period under the REDD+ scheme. We start by developing land use change and forest harvesting models that are used to estimate carbon stock changes in natural forests and forest plantations in Southeast Asia. Carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation of natural forests were 1865.1, 1611.4, and 1300.4 TgCO2 year-1, respectively. With a hypothetical carbon project of 35 years beginning from 2015, carbon emission reductions were estimated at 817.6 TgCO2 year-1, of which about 10% was from reducing forest degradation. Carbon removals due to increase of forest plantations were 76.3 TgCO2 year-1 but the removals could be much higher if there is a new definition on the eligibility of forest plantations. Summing up together, about 893.9 TgCO2 of carbon credits could be achieved from implementing carbon project in Southeast Asia or about US $6.6 billion annually between 2015 and 2050 if carbon price in 2012 is used. In addition to reducing emissions, there are other benefits from carbon project implementation. This study suggests that REDD+ has great potential for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing carbon stocks in the forests. Without financial incentives, carbon project would not happen and therefore climate change will continue to threaten future development.

Currently, scientifically and reasonably specifying carbon emission reduction measures in the context of "double carbon" has become a common concern worldwide. China's administrative divisions have a notable impact on the formulation and implementation of relevant policies. Therefore the carbon emissions must be calculated accurately under China's administrative divisions at different scales. The spatiotemporal change characteristics of absorption and carbon emissions can provide scientific basis for the formulation of reasonable and differentiated carbon emission reduction policies in different administrative regions in China. To this end, this study used multi-source data such as remote sensing and statistics and integrated ecological models, statistics, and GIS space analysis and other methods to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic change characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon absorption at different administrative scales （provinces, cities, and counties） in China. The results showed that： ① The total carbon absorption of vegetation in China continued to increase from 2000 to 2021 and the average value gradually increased. Differences were observed in spatiotemporal changes in carbon emissions at different administrative scales. The spatiotemporal changes at smaller scales were more evident. Carbon emissions showed obvious spatial differences of "high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west." ② The spatiotemporal distribution of CPI at the administrative scale was similar to that of carbon emissions and the overall trend was increasing annually. The pressure of carbon emissions on carbon absorption gradually weakened from the east to the central and western regions. ③ Spatiotemporal hotspot analysis showed that the overall spatial distribution of cold and hot spots in China's carbon absorption was as follows： In the spatial pattern of "hot in the east and cold in the west," the spatial distribution of cold and hot spots of carbon emissions showed agglomeration characteristics. The provincial scale was primarily oscillating hotspot whereas municipal and county scales were majorly continuous hot spots. Further results revealed that： ① Carbon absorption in different regions and periods in China showed significant variability, especially in the central and eastern regions. The possibility of offsetting carbon emissions by increasing carbon absorption remains. ② At the same scale, administrative regions （such as different provinces） and lower-level administrative regions at another scale （such as different cities in the same province） showed varying degrees of variability in carbon absorption and carbon emissions. Therefore, taking provincial administrative regions as an example for subsequent formulation considering carbon trading, emission reduction, and other policies, we should first consider the coordination of emissions between different cities in the province and then consider the coordination between provinces, which is expected to better promote the implementation of relevant policies.

This paper establishes the framework of influencing factors of carbon emission reduction efficiency from two aspects of driving factors and braking factors and makes theoretical analysis. The panel data model is used to construct the model of influencing factors of carbon emission reduction efficiency. Collecting relevant data from 30 regions in China from 2011 to 2016 and selecting reasonable indicators，the impact of industrial structure, carbon rights market and technological innovation on carbon emission reduction efficiency have been empirically analyzed. According to the analysis conclusion, further calculate the energy efficiency of each region, and then come to carbon dioxide emission reduction potential, energy-saving space and emission reduction space of different regions. The concept of carbon emission decoupling is introduced to calculate the decoupling index of four stages in China and analyze the change of decoupling degree. The results show that: (1) The industrial structure greatly affects the efficiency of carbon emission reduction. The increase of the proportion of the secondary industry will increase the rate of change of carbon emission and reduce the efficiency of carbon emission reduction. The establishment of carbon rights market and improvement of technological innovation ability can effectively improve the efficiency of carbon emission reduction; (2) China's regional energy efficiency is not balanced. There is still great potential for carbon reduction, energy saving and emission reduction; (3) The stage decoupling index of different regions is different, but the degree of decoupling is strengthened year by year. The space of emission reduction is gradually reduced, indicating that the overall trend of economic growth on the pressure of emission reduction eased.

Carbon verification agencies and power enterprises play a crucial role in the process of reducing carbon emissions. Under government regulation, this paper explores the low-carbon behavior of carbon verification agencies and power enterprises, considering factors such as rewards and penalties, reputation, collusion, and costs. We first constructed a carbon emission reduction game model using evolutionary game theory and replicated dynamic equations to analyze the interactions between carbon verification agencies and power enterprises under government oversight. Subsequently, this study used theoretical derivation and numerical simulation to investigate the model’s evolution and the influence of various factors on the system’s evolution results. It is found that, firstly, the carbon emission reduction game between the carbon verification agency and the power enterprises will eventually be stabilized in two states (authentic verification and carbon emission reduction) and (fraudulent verification and no carbon emission reduction), and the specific stabilization of which state is closely related to the selection of the initial values of the parameters. Secondly, within a certain range, increasing the government’s rewards and penalties, increasing the reputation loss of carbon verification agencies and power enterprises, reducing the benefits of collusion between two parties, reducing the cost of low carbon disclosure and emission reduction of power enterprises will help the construction of a cooperative pattern of low carbon emission reduction and authentic supervision of carbon verification agencies.

As the world's largest country regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions， analyzing China's carbon emissions and emission reduction potential is essential to the fight against global climate change. This study constructs the LEAP-China model to forecast and analyze China's carbon emissions and emission reduction potential in three dimensions： primary energy， end-use industries， and carbon emission contribution. The conclusions are as follows： ① Except for the baseline scenario， the industrial structure emission reduction， technological progress， energy structure emission reduction， and blueprint scenarios were all able to realize the goal of "peaking by 2030." ② From 2022 to 2060， carbon emissions from all industries except industry were declining. ③ The carbon emissions of various industrial sectors varied significantly according to their energy consumption， with chemicals > other industries > non-metallic mineral products industry > ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry > non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry > paper and paper products industry. ④ The optimization of energy structure had apparent emission reduction effects in the short term； the optimization of industrial structure was a continuous driving force for carbon emission reduction， and technological progress was a long-term driving force for carbon emission reduction. The study can provide a decision-making basis for China to realize the medium- and long-term carbon emission reduction path.

The emission of greenhouse gases poses enormous pressure on current carbon emissions and carbon reduction. Accurate quantification of carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants is of great significance for achieving the dual carbon goal. To enable enterprises to better understand their carbon emissions, this study constructs a carbon emission model and carbon emission data accounting model for coal-fired power plants. Case data calculations and a carbon emission reduction analysis were conducted. The experiment showcases that the carbon sensitivity of the inner side of the boiler under control conditions is higher than that of the operating parameters controlled on the inner side of the steam turbine, with a maximum total value of 16.67 g/MJ; the annual average low calorific value of coal remains between 16,000 kJ/kg; the activity level of coal remains between 30,000 TJ; and the oxidation probability of coal char during combustion fluctuates, with a maximum of 99.8%. In the calculation of coal-fired carbon emissions, the fitting difference between the emissions of generator unit 1 and generator unit 2 is maintained within 2%. Overall, the CO2 emissions of power plants involved in the study are generally high. The model built through this study has well analyzed the carbon emissions of power plants. It is of great significance for the actual carbon emission reduction of coal-fired power plants.

PurposeOutsourcing remanufacturing is a major form of remanufacturing, and emission reduction is an important part of a manufacturer's production. This paper aims to investigate carbon emission reduction strategies in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with outsourcing remanufacturing and design a contract to coordinate the CLSC.Design/methodology/approachThe authors establish two-period game models between an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and third-party remanufacturer (TPR) in different scenarios, including decentralized decision, centralized decision and coordinated decision. Furthermore, the authors study the optimal decisions by maximizing the profit model. The authors also investigate the impact of a carbon tax and emission reduction on the optimal decisions through comparative analysis.FindingsEmission reduction increases the quantity of new products and the OEM's profit. However, emission reduction decreases the outsourcing fee, which is not conducive to remanufacturing; thus, the TPR's profit does not necessarily increase. Compared with a decentralized scenario, the output of remanufactured products and the total profit increase. When the acceptance level of remanufactured products is high enough or when emissions from remanufacturing are low enough, the total carbon emissions are reduced in the centralized scenario. For the coordination of the CLSC, the OEM needs to increase the outsourcing fee and the TPR needs to share part of the emission reduction costs.Research limitations/implicationsThe TPR can choose three different remanufacturing strategies, namely, no remanufacturing, partial remanufacturing or full remanufacturing. For the majority of firms, it is difficult to remanufacture all used products. Therefore, the analysis is based only on partial remanufacturing.Practical implicationsThe results provide insights for remanufacturing and emission reduction decisions, as well as a decision basis for the cooperation between the OEM and TPR.Originality/valueThe authors combine the OEM's carbon emission reduction with outsourcing remanufacturing, and investigate the impact of technological spillover on the TPR's profit.

Has China achieved synergistic reduction of carbon emissions and air pollution? Evidence from 283 Chinese cities

Carbon emission has negative externalities, which will cause severe natural and social problems. In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to carbon emission reduction issue both in academic and application fields. This paper aims to explore the impact of punitive carbon tax and incentive carbon emission reduction subsidy on economy and environment through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework. The results show that both carbon tax and carbon emission reduction subsidy policies can help to reduce carbon emissions and to improve environment quality. In addition, carbon emission reduction subsidy has a positive impact on economy, while carbon tax has the opposite impact. It follows that the incentive carbon emission reduction policy is more conducive to the coordinated development of economy and environment. This research can be a guideline for the government to formulate carbon emission abatement policies from the perspective of coordinated development.

Transportation is a key industry in urban energy consumption, air pollutant emissions and greenhouse gas emissions, which has a significant impact on air quality and climate change. The number of motor vehicles in Guangdong province continues to grow, with more than 18 million at the end of 2017. Under the dual pressure of energy and environmental protection, new energy vehicles, as an important carrier of “low-carbon economy”, have become the development direction of cars in Guangdong province. The Guangdong government adopts the B2B model to introduce new energy vehicles from the public transportation. In 2017, Guangdong province had 63,391 buses, of which new energy vehicles accounted for 46.2%. This study takes the implementation of new energy vehicles in the public transport system of Guangdong province as the research object, and the energy consumption of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles were compared. Based on the CDM methodology, the changes in carbon emissions caused by the introduction of new energy vehicles in the transit system were calculated. Carbon emissions in 2020 were estimated according to the number of public buses in Guangdong province and the new energy bus planning. From 2016 to 2020, EV (electric vehicles) accounted for 63-79% of new energy vehicles in buses of Guangdong province, and HEV (hybrid electric vehicles), mainly natural gas and electric hybrid, accounted for 13-16% of the total buses. The total carbon emission of buses in 2020 was reduced by 44.6% compared with 2016, of which EV contributed the most to the emission reduction. In this study, different scenarios are set up to analyze the influence of power generation energy structure and vehicle fuel type on greenhouse gas emission reduction. It is found that power grid energy structure is a key factor affecting the carbon emission and emission reduction space of electric vehicles. The fuel type of vehicle directly affects the emission coefficient of CO2 per unit fuel, and plays an important role in carbon emission reduction.

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories (economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries (Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies.

A scientific carbon accounting system can help enterprises reduce carbon emissions. This study took an enterprise in the Yangtze River basin as a case study. The accounting classification of carbon emissions in the life cycle of lime production was assessed, and the composition of the sources of carbon emission was analyzed, covering mining explosives, fuel (diesel, coal), electricity and high-temperature limestone decomposition. Using the IPCC emission factor method, a carbon life cycle emission accounting model for lime production was established. We determined that the carbon dioxide equivalent from producing one ton of quicklime ranged from 1096.68 kg CO2 equiv. to 1176.96 kg CO2 equiv. from 2019 to 2021 in the studied case. The decomposition of limestone at a high temperature was the largest carbon emission source, accounting for 64% of the total carbon emission. Coal combustion was the second major source of carbon emissions, accounting for 31% of total carbon emissions. Based upon the main sources of carbon emission for lime production, carbon emission reduction should focus on CO2 capture technology and fuel optimization. Based on the error transfer method, we calculated that the overall uncertainty of the life cycle carbon emissions of quicklime from 2019 to 2021 are 2.13%, 2.07% and 2.09%, respectively. Using our analysis of carbon emissions, the carbon emission factor of producing one unit of quicklime in the lime enterprise in the Yangtze River basin was determined. Furthermore, this research into carbon emission reduction for lime production can provide a point of reference for the promotion of carbon neutrality in the same industry.

The aim of this research is to contribute toward the development of a new mathematical model for predicting the carbon emissions and find the potential to control carbon emissions in stamping process chain. This study includes a review on the existing models of carbon emission analysis and reduction. Based on the existing models, the established models will track the visibility and process of carbon footprint in stamping process chain. In particular, the paper discusses the breakdown of the processes that contribute to the overall carbon emissions of a stamping process chain, such as electricity consumed by the equipment, lubricant fluid, and tool making. Finally, to meet the needs for low carbon manufacturing, a new energy matching and saving method for a group of hydraulic presses is discussed. On the basis of the investigated process chain, the method leads to the related energy and carbon emission reduction.